Decline of American Whites Exceeding Census Bureau’s Projections?

Written by Susan Yoshihara. Posted in Demography, Population

See TheWeek’s post on the US Census Bureau’s announcement that White America has “peaked” a decade earlier than previously predicted:

For the year ending July 2012, there were 12,000 more deaths among the white population than the number off births. That decline came a decade earlier than was previously expected; the Census Bureau estimated last year that the white population would peak in 2024 and then decline by about 20.6 million through 2060.

While the decline in native-born whites was offset by the immigration of 188,000 new white residents, the slowing rate of the group’s overall population growth underscored the radical demographic transformation the nation is undergoing.

Over the same period, Asian-Americans were the fastest-growing racial group, their population rising by 530,000, or 2.9 percent. The Hispanic population rose second-fastest, by 2.2 percent. With a gain of 1.1 million people, that represented nearly twice the raw growth of the Asian-American population.

And though Latinos are more commonly viewed as the focus of the big immigration debate before Congress, the census data showed that native births accounted for 76 percent of the uptick in the Latino population. By contrast, immigration accounted for 60 percent of the population growth among Asian-Americans.

The Children of Men-Japanese Style

Written by Susan Yoshihara. Posted in Demography, Population

I was edified to see the NY Times making the same point I have been emphasizing in my book talks: declinists have been saying for decades that America’s fiscal woes would finally topple its international primacy, and for decades, the declinists have got it wrong. The NYT OpEd notes that 20 years ago pessimists feared Japan would overtake the United States (in the 70s it was the USSR, today it is China).

Japan’s plummeting fertility is causing bizarre social consequences, some right out of P.D.Jame’s 1992 thriller about the last child born on earth, The Children of Men. Along with Japan’s economic woes, demographic decline is contributing to Japan’s suicide rate, which is second only to Russia’s (the next oldest nation on earth after Japan). The OpEd picks up on Nick Eberstadt’s essay in the Spring volume of the Wilson Quarterly, which I will blog on later.

One troubling aspect in this piece , which I found in another recent NYT OpEd, is the assertion that out of wedlock births as a positive factor in American demographic exceptionalism. As I emphasize in the book, the jury is out on that. There is evidence showing the fact could actually squander the demographic advantage.  The erosion of working values (correlated to intact families and extended families) could eventually erode worker productivity even if the workforce expands.

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